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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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