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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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