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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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