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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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