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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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