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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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