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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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