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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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