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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 January 19
CAPESIZE: A MORE POSITIVE START OF THE NEW YEAR THAN EXPECTED FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
A more positive start of the new year than expected for the big ships, with average gains of US$ 500/day posted on the first tra ...
Tuesday, 01 January 19
INDONESIA: COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO EXCEED THIS YEAR'S TARGET - JP
Indonesian coal production reached 456 million tons up to Thursday or 94.02 percent of this year’s total target of 485 million tons, accordin ...
Monday, 31 December 18
THE INDONESIAN COAL MARKET Q1 '19 FORECAST: LOOKS DIRECTIONLESS - TRADER
The Indonesian coal market looks directionless, an International coal trader said when we asked him to give his forecast for 1Q' 2019.
...
Monday, 31 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND GREW BY 1% IN 2017; GLOBAL COAL POWER GENERATION INCREASED BY OVER 250 TWH - IEA
After two years of decline, global coal demand grew by 1% in 2017 to 7585 Mt as stronger global economic growth increased both industrial output an ...
Sunday, 30 December 18
MAJOR LNG BUYERS' UNCONTRACTED DEMAND TO QUADRUPLE BY 2030 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest research reveals that uncontracted demand by the world’s seven largest LNG buyers could quadruple to 80 million ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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