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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 29 December 18
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT PRODUCTION OF THE ORIGINAL BILL OF LADING - TT CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
As the bill of lading is a document of title, a person presenting it to the carrier or its agent is ostensibly entitled t ...
Friday, 28 December 18
BIMCO 2020 SULPHUR CLAUSES: "A FAIR ALLOCATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES AND LIABILITIES'? - INCE & CO.
To assist owners and charterers to address the legal issues arising under any time charterparties, which will span the 1 January 2020 implementatio ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
DRY BULKERS SPOT FREIGHT MARKET W/E 21 DEC - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Capesize
A negative week for the Capesize sector, as activity remained at low levels, especially in the Pacific, with rumors regarding agreed r ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full ...
Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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