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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 29 December 18
DELIVERY OF CARGO WITHOUT PRODUCTION OF THE ORIGINAL BILL OF LADING - TT CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
As the bill of lading is a document of title, a person presenting it to the carrier or its agent is ostensibly entitled t ...
Friday, 28 December 18
BIMCO 2020 SULPHUR CLAUSES: "A FAIR ALLOCATION OF RESPONSIBILITIES AND LIABILITIES'? - INCE & CO.
To assist owners and charterers to address the legal issues arising under any time charterparties, which will span the 1 January 2020 implementatio ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
DRY BULKERS SPOT FREIGHT MARKET W/E 21 DEC - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Capesize
A negative week for the Capesize sector, as activity remained at low levels, especially in the Pacific, with rumors regarding agreed r ...
Thursday, 27 December 18
SHIPPING IS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF EVER CHALLENGING CONDITIONS - ALLIED
As we move closer to the end of the year and we look forward into New Year, we are still finding ourselves looking deep into a market outlook full ...
Tuesday, 25 December 18
FUEL QUALITY AND SAFETY IN IMO CONVENTIONS: A GROWING CHALLENGE, EVEN PRIOR TO 1 JANUARY 2020 - IUMI
At the 100th session of the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC) meeting discussions on fuel quality a ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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