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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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