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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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