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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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