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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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