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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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