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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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