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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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