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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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