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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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