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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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