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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
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