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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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