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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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