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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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