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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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