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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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