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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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