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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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