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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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