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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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