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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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