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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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