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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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