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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
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