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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
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