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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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