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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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