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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
...
Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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