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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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