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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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