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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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