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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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