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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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