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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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