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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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