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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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