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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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