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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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