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Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of 0.5% sulphur content does not yet exist physically nor financially. Thus, there is technical and financial planning to be involved and as reported the current global crude streams enable the production of about 15mill bl/d of final 0.5% sulphur content marine fuel if refineries maximize output. The market is currently using Gasoil 0.1% sulphur content price as a proxy for the upcoming 0.5%S MFO. Accordingly, it is estimated that between 2020 and 2022 it will trade at USD 90/ton discount to the Gasoil 0.1% price. Later, it is projected that the 0.5% MFO price will settle closer to the HFO 3.5% price, at a USD 90/ton premium to HFO 3.5%.
As seen, many ship-owners have rushed to order scrubbers and as reported in 2020 there will be more than 1600 scrubbers installed and on order. It is projected that between 2021 and 2022 demand will be much higher always subject to the order books. As discussed in 2020, the global bunker oil consumption will be mainly MFO of 0.5% sulphur content and almost 95% of vessels will not have scrubbers fitted. Unavoidably, in order for refineries to produce MFO of 0.5% sulphur content there will be a great availability of HFO 3.5% fuel. This is because high sulphur residue fuel is a by product in the production of MFO 0.5%. Rationally HFO 3.5% will be available in larger ports and most probably will be utilized by container vessels in certain routes or product carriers that will trade between refineries. Therefore, for these routes and specific trade, scrubber installation will certainly advance. In general, it is forecasted that more than 2.0m bl/d of HFO 3.5% surplus will be produced in 2020 and the question remains where and how this amount of fuel will be stored. The increased inventory will lead to HFO 3.5% prices being low for some time until the supply/demand balances and thus prices will be restored in the later years.
Furthermore, as the new fuel is yet unknown there is a discussion by ship-owners whether blending MFO 0.5% from various suppliers will be stable and not likely to damage engines. Overall, most shippers are installing scrubbers to part of their fleet to build up step by step knowledge. Scrubber installation has led many to believe that “early movers will make a scrubber profit” while “late movers will make a scrubber saving”. Last but not least, many ship-owners that have their vessels on long time charters have considered the option to include a clause in their charter parties, for Charterers requesting a scrubber vessel, to pay for it through hire agreement.
The next couple of years will not be short of interesting developments for sure. The second half of 2019 and closer to 2020 will lead to more confident conclusions towards the MFO 0.5%, Gasoil 0.1% and HFO 3.5% price spreads with the maritime industry’s bunker fuel shift. It is expected that concerns related to volatility of the MFO 0.5% product will progressively dissolve as more users will be able to test it during 2019 leading to the understanding that it will not be a gasoil-based product but instead a fuel-based bunker. Finally, it is expected that scrubber installation for bigger vessels will be hurried while for fleets with smaller vessels it will take longer. The main question to be answered is whether scrubber installation will generate profits or just savings.
By Katerina Resti
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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