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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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