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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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