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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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