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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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