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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Monday, 24 December 18
DRY BULK MARKET: CAPESIZE MARKET ON BACKFOOT AS 2018'S END DRAWS NEAR - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Panic set in in the East as the holiday season approaches, with owners chasing rates lower. Rates on the key West Australia/China route ...
Friday, 21 December 18
4.2 MILLION DWT OF DRY BULK SHIPS SCRAPPED UNTIL 17 DEC, DOWN 71.6% Y/Y - BIMCO
2018 has been a slow year for dry bulk demolitions, with only 4.2 million DWT scrapped (as of 17 December), down 71.6% compared to last year. An al ...
Thursday, 20 December 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICES DIVERGE FROM KEY BENCHMARK - FITCH RATINGS
The Newcastle 6,000kcal coal price benchmark that is widely used to determine most coal price estimates for Indonesian coal miners has increasingly ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
CHINA'S IMPORT RESTRICTIONS ON COAL SPOILS THE PARTY FOR PANAMAXES - DREWRY
The Chinese government’s objective of suppressing coal and lignite imports in November and December 2018 is adversely impacting demand for Pa ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND SET TO REMAIN STABLE THROUGH 2023, DESPITE HEADWINDS - IEA
While global coal demand looks set to rise for the second year in a row in 2018, it is forecast to remain stable over the next five years, as decli ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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