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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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