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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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