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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Thursday, 17 January 19
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL EXPORTS WERE 116 MMST IN 2018, 20% HIGHER THAN THE AMOUNT EXPORTED IN 2017
Coal Supply
EIA estimates that coal production declined by 20 million short tons (MMst) (3%) in 2018, despite a 19 MMst increase in U.S. coal e ...
Thursday, 17 January 19
U.S COAL OUTPUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY 3 PER CENT IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 729 million short tons (MMst) in 2019, down by 25 MMst (3%) from 2018.
Acco ...
Wednesday, 16 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we go through the first days of the year and just a few weeks before the Chinese New Year, the ship repair sector is witnessing a big difference ...
Monday, 14 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF MIN 3,800 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV coal for ...
Friday, 11 January 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA HAD A MIXED START; LIMITED ACTION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Dashed hopes summed up the first full week of the New Year. A slow start followed by a busy 24 hours of improving rates and a firming ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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