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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 08 January 19
GLOBAL TRADE GROWTH EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HEALTHY IN 2019 - ALLIED
2019 is here and we find ourselves with new challenges for the shipping industry and the global economy as whole, with market prospects being neith ...
Monday, 07 January 19
THE NEWCASTLE BENCHMARK SPOT PRICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE FROM AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE OF US$105 A TONNE IN 2018 TO US$74 A TONNE IN 2020 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
• The Newcastle benchmark spot price is forecast to decline from an estimated average of US$105 a tonne in 2018 to US$74 a tonne in 2020, prim ...
Monday, 07 January 19
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FALLS FOR FIFTH STRAIGHT MONTH IN JANUARY 2019; LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 07 January 19
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.9% TO 433.4 MLN TONNES IN 2018 - TASS
Coal production in Russia in 2018 increased by 5.9% year-on-year to 433.4 mln tonnes, according to the Central Dispatching Department of Fuel Energ ...
Friday, 04 January 19
FOCUS IS ON BOOSTING COAL PRODUCTION: INDIAN COAL MINISTER
The current focus of the government is on boosting production from operational coal mines, according to Minister for Coal, Piyush Goyal.
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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