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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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