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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Thursday, 10 January 19
BUNKER DELIVERY NOTE AMENDMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE AS SULPHUR 2020 REQUIREMENT LOOMS - IMO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Amendments to the bunker delivery note relating to the supply of marine fuel oil to ships which have fitted alternative m ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
WORLD TRADE IN THERMAL COAL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE GROWN BY 1.0 PER CENT IN 2018 - DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIA
World Trade
World trade in thermal coal is estimated to have grown by 1.0 per cent to 1.1 billion tonnes in 2018 but it is expected to decline ...
Thursday, 10 January 19
PAKISTAN'S COAL IMPORTS TO SURGE TO 30 MILLION TONS PER ANNUM BY 2020 - CEO, PIB
Pakistan’s coal imports are estimated to surge to 30 million tons/annum from existing 20 million tons/annum by the year 2020, given the plann ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW RELATIVELY GOOD DEMAND PARTICULARLY FROM INDONESIA AND NOPAC - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was an active start to the New Year, with trading from West Australia maintaining momentum during the holiday period. Rates for Chi ...
Wednesday, 09 January 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Paraphrasing the words of a Chief economist in a latest report of the World Bank Group, the current state of the shipping market very much resemble ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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