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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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