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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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