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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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