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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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