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Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
 In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
Wood Mackenzie senior consultant Yu Zhai said:
"We estimate China's seaborne metallurgical coal imports to reduce by 3 million tonnes (Mt) in 2019 as a result of China's coal import restriction. The high quality of seaborne coal, and difficulties securing alternative coal domestically, should insulate coal exporters from much deeper cuts, despite strong signals from China. Australia would account for most of the volume reduction as it represented over 75% of China's seaborne metallurgical imports in 2018. Australia exported around 36 Mt metallurgical to China last year, makign up 20% of Australia's total exports.
"China's seaborne thermal coal imports is estimated to reduce by 15 Mt in 2019, taking into account the risk of wider coal import restriction. Australia could also be most affected by a similar restriction."
On implications on metallurgical coal, Wood Mackenzie's research director Robin Griffin said:
"A prolonged China-wide ban could have enormous implications for markets in both countries. The possibility of adverse impacts on China suggest a long term ban is unlikely."
Some of the most prominent impacts could include:
- Chinese domestic prices would spike. Prices for low sulphur premium coals in particular would rise as importers scramble to replace Australian coals. We expect that short term replacements will be hard to find domestically. There is a heavy reliance among coastal mills on low sulphur hard coking coals from Luilin County in Shanxi. There are other similar coals in Anze County but these are typically used inside Shanxi by merchant coke makers due to high transport costs to the coast. As an indication of what might happen during an import ban, domestic coking coal futures jumped at the end of January on the news of import controls. Chinese steel makers would ultimately see much costlier coke blends.
- Seaborne prices would decouple from Chinese domestic prices. We expect FOB Australian prices, particularly for premium and 2nd tier HCCs, would come under severe pressure as Australian exporters look to sell excess coal into other markets. The decoupling would be of most benefit to steel makers elsewhere in Asia, and Europe, who would see a fall in coal costs. Australia's competitors in the metallurgical coal trade might see greater opportunities into China, but Canada and the US are already subject to some quality and tariff-related restrictions into China, limiting their potential upside. And of course, lower seaborne prices would offset the benefit of any extra demand from China.
- Mongolian coal imports could rise substantially in order to replace Australian coals. Weaker coals make up the majority of Mongolian exports so in the short term direct replacements for Australian coals would be limited. However, new border crossing technology is being implemented to speed up trucking clearances, which would facilitate higher exports.
- A longer-term ban would force Chinese coastal mills to amend coke blends. There are options for mills to make blend changes, but not without implications. There are two common blends that could be utilised which would result in higher sulphur, higher ash, and lower CSR coke products:
- Use of more high sulphur (1.8% total sulphur) premium HCCs such as Luilin #9, blended with Mongolian 2ndtier HCCs such as the #3 product to produce a tier 1 coke.
- Use of mid-sulphur Shanxi premium HCCs (1-1.3% total sulphur) with low sulphur (0.5% total sulphur) 1/3 coking coals to produce a lower quality, but still a tier 1 coke.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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